Years of droughts in Mexico have already fractured its sugar exports to the United States. Now President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs risk making the once-lucrative trade relationship even worse for America’s top foreign supplier of the commodity.

Trade agreements between the two nations were meant to create a reliable flow of affordable sugar to the US. But the system has unraveled, with more imports now coming from everywhere else. Shipments from Mexico are expected to fall to a 17-year low in 2025, leaving the Latin American nation with a smaller sliver of the market than it expected …

… “This is not the way anyone expected the US-Mexico sugar suspension agreements to work,” said Rick Pasco, president of the Sweetener Users Association. Tariffs, on top of the existing limits on how much sugar Mexico can send to the US, would further restrict supplies and inflate consumer costs, Pasco said.

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